However, the World Bank cautions that growth driven by extractive industries often has weak links to employment and household incomes. Per capita GDP growth is projected to rise to 1.8 percent in 2026, but the bank states these income gains remain too modest to signal a significant improvement in living standards. Rising costs for food, energy, and transportation continue to pressure household purchasing power, particularly for poor and vulnerable families.
The report indicates that the regional poverty rate is projected to fall only modestly, from 47.8 percent in 2026 to 47.1 percent in 2027, using the international poverty line of $3 per person per day. This represents a weak poverty outlook despite continued economic expansion, with poverty expected to remain broadly stagnant between 2022 and 2027.
The World Bank attributes this stagnation to the concentration of growth in capital-intensive extractive sectors that generate few jobs, geographic concentration of economic gains, and rapid population growth. The absolute number of poor people is consequently rising.
Artificial intelligence is identified as a potential opportunity to improve productivity and create new income sources, with Nigeria's developer base expanding significantly. However, the benefits of AI are largely out of reach for poorer households due to high internet costs, limited electricity access, and the affordability of digital devices. The World Bank emphasizes the need for faster, more inclusive growth in Nigeria and the region, focusing on expanding productive employment, improving agricultural productivity, strengthening infrastructure, and widening access to electricity and affordable internet.